Analyst Estimates 25 Million Preorders Could Net $2 Billion for GTA 6

GameSpot reports that Sensor Tower analyst Karl Kontus, SVP and GM of video game insights, has offered a fresh estimate on just how massive GTA 6's preorder haul could be. Speaking with GI.biz, Kontus projected preorders could reach around 25 million units by launch, which he called "unprecedented preorder performance." According to his math, that volume would translate to roughly $2 billion in revenue — enough, he estimates, to cover GTA 6's production budget and the bulk of its marketing costs.

It's worth noting that Take-Two has not shared an official preorder number, with the company saying it wants to avoid misleading investors, nor has it disclosed a specific production or marketing budget for the game. Kontus's figures are estimates based on Sensor Tower's own analysis, not confirmed data from Rockstar or Take-Two.

The analyst also pointed out that GTA 6's marketing push hasn't fully ramped up yet, with a major trailer set to debut on Netflix on August 27. Per Kontus, most preorders typically arrive in the final week before a game's launch, meaning the current tally could still be far from its ceiling.

Kontus additionally weighed in on the split between GTA 6's two preorder editions. While early data may lean toward the $100 edition, he suggested the final breakdown could land closer to a 50/50 split with the standard $80 edition, echoing recent comments from Take-Two CEO Strauss Zelnick. He praised the $100 Ultimate Edition's exclusive vehicles, weapons, and mod shop content as a smart way to encourage bigger spending, though he noted he was "surprised" Take-Two didn't push a $150 tier given the demand.

GTA 6 is set to launch November 19 on PS5 and Xbox Series X|S, and is widely expected to be the biggest release of the year.